近日，海南大学“一带一路”研究院院长梁海明教授在顶尖期刊《Applied Energy》上发表与美国工程院院士、美国普林斯顿大学环境研究所所长Prof. Michael Celia及其博士生陶以恒先生的合作论文“Electric power development associated with the Belt and Road Initiative and its carbon emissions implications”。这是首篇由有美国工程院院士参与绿色“一带一路”的相关研究并公开发表论文，海南大学“一带一路”研究院名誉院长、德州大学达拉斯分校前副校长冯达旋对此进行了分析和意义解读。以下为冯达旋顾问的文章全文：

In Volume 267, June 1 issue of the top-ranked “Journal of Applied Energy (JAE),” from the behemoth Elsevier, a paper entitled “Electric power development associated with the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and its carbon emissions implications” will be published. Currently it is available for on-line purchase:

Top期刊《Applied Energy》6月1日推出的第267期中，将收录一篇名为《与“一带一路”倡议（BRI）相关的电力发展及其对碳排放的影响》的论文。目前本文可以在线购买：

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0306261920302968?dgcid=coauthor

The BRI is a massive and long-term global effort. Yet, it is truly remarkable that even though it was proposed in the Fall of 2013, I am confident that in 7 years, this may be the first, if not the first BRI collaborative results of US and Chinese scientists published in a top global scientific journal whose discussions that are entirely based on gathering and assessing accurate, massive and unbiased data.

“一带一路”倡议是一项巨大且需要全球协作的长期项目。然而，值得注意的是，从2013年秋季提出“一带一路”倡议到现在的七年时间里，本篇文章很有可能是中美两国科学家合作发表在全球顶级科学杂志上的首篇关于“一带一路”的文章。文章的讨论完全基于收集和评估准确、庞大且客观的数据。

Since this area of research is terra incognita for me, I had to carry out a little research to ascertain the position of JAE in the world of energy research. According to https://www.resurchify.com/all_ranking_details_2.php?id=518, the 2018 Impact Factor of JAE is 8.426. This is comparable to the top physics journal I am familiar with, Physical Review Letters, whose IF is 9.227. More information is given below.

由于我对能源领域知之甚少，所以我做了一下调查来确认JAE杂志在能源领域的地位。Resurchify网站https://www.resurchify.com/all_ranking_details_2.php?id=518显示，2018年JAE期刊影响力因子（Impact Factor,简称IF）为8.426。这可与我熟悉的顶级物理期刊《物理评论快报》（Physical Review Letters）相媲美,其IF指数为9.277。详细信息可见下图。（注：期刊影响因子Impact Factor, IF是代表期刊影响大小的一项定量指标。也就是某刊平均论文被引用数，它实际上是某刊在某年被全部源刊物引证该刊前两年发表论文的此书，与该刊前两年所发表的全部源论文数之比。来源：百度百科 ）

The authors of this important paper are Yiheng Tao and Michael Celia of Princeton University’s Department Civil and Environmental Engineering and Haiming Liang of Hainan University Belt and Road Research Institute. Professor Celia is a member of the United States National Academy of Engineering, and is also the Director of Princeton’s Institute of Environmental Sciences, whose expertise is in understanding the global challenge of climate change. Professor Liang’s is one of the new generations of outstanding economists from China. Yiheng Tao is a doctoral student of Professor Celia.

本文的作者是海南大学“一带一路”研究院院长梁海明、普林斯顿大学城市与环境工程系教师Michael Celia和其学生陶以恒。Celia教授是美国国家工程院（the United States National Academy of Engineering）的成员，同时他也是普林斯顿大学环境科学研究所（Princeton’s Institute of Environmental Sciences）主任。Celia教授主要研究气候变化引起的全球挑战。梁海明教授是中国当代有名的经济学家。陶以恒是Celia教授的博士生。

Michael Celia教授和梁海明院长

As expected, the paper is long (more than 40 journal pages) and information-rich. The ABSTRACT of the paper given below also manifests how one can and should conduct this area of research.

正如预期的那样，该论文篇幅较长（40多页）且信息丰富。 以下的论文摘要也将呈现这一研究的可行性及规范性。

Abstract

The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), initially proposed by China in Fall 2013, involves large-scale development of infrastructure, including energy infrastructure, in Asia, Europe, and Africa, and thus has the potential to affect global climate. In this work, we analyze publicly available information for 458 power plant development projects in 15 representative countries across the BRI regions from eight years prior to BRI (January 2005), to 6 years after BRI (June 2019) in which Chinese engineering contracting companies played a significant role. The data indicate that coal, gas, and solar photovoltaics (PV) activities increased to different degrees after BRI was introduced. We find that 75% of the new generation capacity after October 2013 has gone to fossil fuels, while the rest has gone to hydroelectricity (14%), solar PV (6%), wind (3%), and others (2%). Those numbers have important carbon emissions implications. Based on current trends, the total BRI-associated power development in the 15 countries could generate 37 (range 26–48) gigatonnes (Gt) of committed carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions by the end of 2030, corresponding to 4–11% of the remaining carbon budget for the 1.5-degree climate goal. Extrapolation of these results to all BRI countries gives an estimate of 56 (range 40–72) Gt CO2 for cumulative BRI-related committed emissions by 2030, corresponding to 7% to 17% of the remaining 1.5-degree carbon budget. If the projected growth of fossil fuel power generation in BRI slows down prior to 2030, there are commensurate reductions in emissions implications. To provide context for these numbers, we define a “greenness ratio,” which can be used to measure the level of environmental sustainability of BRI in the power sector.

“一带一路”倡议，简称BRI，2013年秋由中国提出。“一带一路”重点在大规模基础设施建设，其中包括亚洲、欧洲和非洲的能源设施等，因此该项目可能影响全球气候。鉴于此，我们分析了“一带一路”倡议前八年（2005年1月）及后6年（2019年6月）十五年期间，中国工程承包公司援建的15个有代表性的“一带一路”沿线国家的458个发电厂开发项目的公开信息和数据。数据表明，自“一带一路”倡议提出以来，煤炭、天然气和太阳能光伏发电量均有不同程度的增长。我们发现，自2013年10月起，75%的新发电能来源是化石燃料，其余的分别是水力发电(14%)、太阳能光伏发电(6%)、风能发电(3%)和其它能源(2%)。这些数字对碳排放有着重要的影响。根据目前的趋势，到2030年年底，15个与“一带一路”相关的电力开发项目有关的国家将产生37亿吨(范围为26-48亿吨)的二氧化碳排放，相当于1.5℃气候目标剩余碳预算的4%-11%。由此推算，估计到2030年，所有与“一带一路”相关的国家累计承诺排放量为56亿吨二氧化碳(范围在40至72之间)，相当于剩余1.5℃碳预算的7%至17%。如果“一带一路”国家化石燃料发电的预期增长能在2030年之前放缓，其排放影响也将相应减少。为充分证实这些数字的真实性，我们构建了一个“绿色比率”模型，它可以用来衡量“一带一路”电力产业的环境可持续性水平。

The importance of this paper can be summarized as follows:

(1) This is a cross-pollination of environmental engineering science and geo-economics;

(2) This is the first collaboration of United States and China’s scientific on the issue of BRI

本文重点如下所示：

1）环境工程科学和地缘经济学的跨学科合作；

2）“一带一路”倡议提出以来，中美科学家首篇合作发表论文。

For (1), it is known throughout the global research community that intellectual cross-pollination is the best way to create innovative and deeper ideas. In this case, both disciplines of environmental engineering science and geo-economics require detailed and accurate data to reach consensus.

关于（1），在全球研究界中众所周知，跨学科是实现创新和产生更深层次想法最好的方法。在这种情况下，环境工程科学和地缘经济学这两个学科都需要详细而准确的数据才能达成共识。

For (2), this is especially noteworthy that when nowadays there is significant political intrusions into any BRI discussion. These groups of scientists could rise above the fray, and concentrate on what the massive and accurate data is telling them. Their results cannot be and is not either perturbed or imbalanced by other peripheral issues. Unquestionably, for BRI to benefit mankind, more of such research results should be and are acutely needed. The results published in this paper clearly indicate to us that even in the energy arena, the work may still be only the tip-of-the-iceberg. There are multitudes of research directions which one could pursue to render BRI a true benefit for humanity.

关于（2）特别值得注意的是，现如今，任何“一带一路”倡议的讨论中都有重大的政治干预。这些科学家群体可能会脱颖而出，专注于大量准确数据所呈现的内容。 他们的结果不能也不会受到其他外围问题的干扰或影响。 毫无疑问，为了使“一带一路”造福于全人类，这样的研究成果应当有而且迫切需要。本文研究结果清楚地表明，即使在能源领域，这项工作也可能只是冰山一角。有许多研究方向可以使“一带一路”真正为人类带来好处。

With this paper appearing in the top and open global journal, I hope that this could set an intellectual standard in which one should aspire to in any future research on BRI.

随着这篇论文发表在全球最重要的公开期刊上，我希望这可以为之后“一带一路”研究设立一个理想的标准。

I am fortunate to personally know both Professor Celia and Professor Liang. Professor Celia and I were for several years members of the Academic Advisory Board of one of the fastest growing Malaysian universities: Universiti Tecknologi Petronas (UTP) and Professor Liang and I have collaborated for several years already on various projects regarding issues and challenges confronting the BRI. Their intellectual capacities and honesty are palpable. This collaboration was conducted during a six-month-visit by Professor Liang at Princeton University’s Institute of Environmental Sciences.

我很幸运认识Celia教授和梁教授。Celia教授和我都是马来西亚国油大学（Universiti Tecknologi Petronas，UTP，马来西亚发展最快的大学之一）学术顾问委员会多年的成员了。我和梁海明教授就“一带一路”所面临的问题和机遇等不同项目进行了多年的合作。他们的睿智和诚实是很明显的。这项合作是梁海明教授在普林斯顿大学环境科学研究所进行为期六个月访问时促成的。

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